Bear Market Detected: What Our AI Sees Right Now
Our regime classifier has shifted to BEAR. Here's what the data shows, how our strategies are adapting, and what it means for your portfolio.
The Regime Has Shifted
As of March 2026, Fillipio's market regime classifier has detected a BEAR market environment. This is not a prediction — it is a reading of current conditions based on multiple data points.
What the Numbers Show
Our regime detector analyzes SPY (S&P 500 ETF) across several dimensions:
How Our Strategies Are Responding
When the regime classifier detects BEAR conditions, three things happen automatically:
1. Position Sizing Shrinks
The position_scale factor drops, meaning each new trade is smaller. In a bull market, a strategy might allocate 5% of portfolio per trade. In a bear market, that drops to 2-3%.
2. Signal Thresholds Rise
It becomes harder for a stock to earn a BUY signal. The composite score threshold effectively increases by 5 points, meaning only the strongest setups trigger trades.
3. More Stocks Get Flagged
Risk Radar typically flags more stocks in bear markets. The sell signal count rises as more stocks fall below key technical levels.
What This Means for You
A bear regime is not a signal to panic. It is information. Here is how to use it:
Historical Context
Bear regimes in our backtesting period (2023-2026) typically lasted 2-8 weeks. The model does not predict how long a regime will last — it simply classifies current conditions.
During bear periods, our paper trading strategies held fewer positions and preserved more capital. The Momentum strategy in particular switches to a very defensive posture with only 1-3 positions versus its normal 10-15.
Steffen Fonvig
Founder & CEO, Fonvig Group
Entrepreneur and founder building companies across fintech, media, and health tech since 2013. Creator of Fillipio, an AI-powered stock screening platform. Based in Oslo, Norway.