Track Record

Transparent Performance. Every Pick, Every Outcome.

We believe trust is earned by showing the full picture. Every stock pick is recorded at the time of signal with a frozen entry price. We show every outcome — including losses. No cherry-picking, no retroactive edits, no hypothetical results. This is our real trading signal track record, updated daily.

Our AI stock picks results speak for themselves. We track win rate, average return, expectancy, profit factor, and alpha vs the S&P 500 — the metrics that matter for evaluating any systematic stock pick performance system. Explore our signals to see how picks are generated, or learn about our three strategies that drive the model.

How We Track Performance

Transparency requires a rigorous process. Here is exactly how every pick is recorded, tracked, and measured from signal to exit.

Recorded at Signal Time

Every pick is logged the moment the signal fires. The entry price is frozen and never changed retroactively, so what you see is exactly what the model signaled.

ATR-Based Stops & Targets

Stop-losses and profit targets are calculated using Average True Range (ATR), adapting to each stock's volatility. No arbitrary round numbers — every level is data-driven.

Real-Time Tracking

Active picks are updated with current prices and unrealized P&L every trading day. You always know where each pick stands relative to its entry, stop, and targets.

SPY Benchmark Comparison

Every closed pick is compared against SPY over the same holding period. This tells you whether the pick outperformed or underperformed a simple index buy, measured as alpha.

Our Methodology

Understanding how picks are generated, managed, and evaluated helps you assess whether our approach matches your investment style.

What Triggers a Pick

A pick is generated when a stock's composite score crosses above our signal threshold across one or more of our three strategies. The composite score blends technical analysis (25+ indicators), machine learning predictions (Optuna-optimized LightGBM with 50 features), and fundamental quality metrics. Only stocks that pass our liquidity filters (20-day average volume above 100K, price above $1) are eligible. You can explore the full scoring process on our How It Works page.

How Stops and Targets Are Set

Every pick has a stop-loss and two profit targets calculated from the stock's ATR (Average True Range) at entry time. ATR measures a stock's recent volatility, so stops adapt to each stock's behavior. A volatile stock gets a wider stop than a stable one — this prevents premature stop-outs from normal price noise. Target 1 is set at a moderate reward level, and Target 2 at an extended level for runners. This is the same approach used by professional systematic traders to manage risk. Learn more about our risk approach on the Risk Radar page.

How We Calculate Alpha

Alpha measures the value added (or lost) compared to simply holding the S&P 500 index (SPY). For each closed pick, we calculate what SPY returned over the exact same calendar days the pick was held. The difference between the pick's return and SPY's return over that period is alpha. Positive alpha means the pick outperformed the market; negative alpha means it underperformed. We report alpha alongside raw return so you can judge whether our picks beat a passive buy-and-hold strategy.

Why We Show Losses

Every trading system produces losses — it is mathematically unavoidable. What separates a good system from a bad one is the relationship between win rate, average win size, and average loss size. By showing every stopped-out and expired pick alongside winners, we let you evaluate the full distribution of outcomes. If we only showed winners, you'd have no way to assess real risk. We encourage you to also review our stock screener to understand the breadth of our coverage.

All data is provided for informational purposes only. These results are not financial advice and should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. See our full disclaimer.

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Understanding the Numbers

Performance metrics can be confusing. Here is what each key number means and why it matters for evaluating a systematic trading approach.

Win Rate

The percentage of closed picks that were profitable. A 60% win rate means 6 out of 10 picks made money. Important: win rate alone does not determine profitability. A system with a 40% win rate can still be profitable if the average win is much larger than the average loss. Always evaluate win rate alongside expectancy and profit factor.

Expectancy

The average amount gained or lost per trade, expressed as a ratio. It combines win rate with average win and loss sizes: (win rate x avg win) - (loss rate x avg loss). A positive expectancy means the system is expected to be profitable over many trades. This is the single most important metric for evaluating a trading system's edge.

Profit Factor

The ratio of total gross profits to total gross losses. A profit factor of 1.5 means the system makes $1.50 in winning trades for every $1.00 lost. Any value above 1.0 indicates overall profitability. Professional traders typically look for a profit factor above 1.3. Below 1.0 means the system loses money overall.

Alpha vs SPY

Alpha measures excess return compared to the S&P 500 (SPY) benchmark over the same holding period. Positive alpha means our picks outperformed the market; negative alpha means they underperformed. This is the ultimate test: if a stock pick system cannot beat a simple index fund, there is no reason to use it. We hold ourselves to this standard.

All statistics are calculated from closed picks only. Active picks are excluded until they reach a stop-loss, target, or expiration. Statistics update daily.

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about our stock pick performance and track record.

Are these real trades or backtested results?

Every pick shown on this page was recorded in real time at the moment the signal fired. Entry prices are frozen at signal time and never adjusted retroactively. These are not backtested, hypothetical, or paper-traded results. We track picks from signal to exit using the same data you see in your dashboard.

Why do you show losing picks?

Because transparency builds trust. Any system that only shows winners is hiding the full picture. We believe you deserve to see every outcome — wins and losses — so you can evaluate our methodology honestly. Losses are a normal part of any trading system; what matters is whether the overall expectancy and risk management produce positive results over time.

How is alpha vs SPY calculated?

For each closed pick, we compare the pick's realized return against the S&P 500 (SPY) return over the same holding period. If a pick returned +8% over 12 days while SPY returned +2% in those same 12 days, the alpha is +6%. This gives you a true apples-to-apples comparison of whether our picks added value beyond simply holding the market index.

What does 'expectancy' mean in your stats?

Expectancy measures the average dollar you can expect to gain (or lose) per dollar risked, per trade. It combines win rate, average win size, and average loss size into a single number. A positive expectancy means the system is profitable over many trades. For example, an expectancy of 0.35 means you can expect to gain $0.35 for every $1 risked on average across all trades.

Can past performance predict future results?

No. Past performance does not guarantee future results — this is a fundamental principle of investing. Market conditions change, and any model can experience drawdowns. We publish our track record for transparency, not as a promise. Always do your own research, manage your risk, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. See our full disclaimer for details.

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Important Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. All stock pick performance data shown on this page is historical and provided for informational and educational purposes only. It should not be interpreted as a guarantee, promise, or projection of future performance.

Not Financial Advice: Fillipio provides algorithmic stock analysis and scoring tools. Nothing on this website constitutes personalized investment advice, a solicitation to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation for any specific investment strategy. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Risk Warning: Investing in stocks involves risk, including the risk of total loss of capital. The results displayed may not be representative of future results. Market conditions change and there is no assurance that any strategy will achieve its objectives. Read our full disclaimer before using this service.